SWODY1
SPC AC 021249
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT WED MAY 02 2007
VALID 021300Z - 031200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS A LARGE PART OF TX...
..TX...
MODELS VERY SIMILAR IN TAKING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE AZ/NM
BORDER AT 12Z EWD INTO WRN TX BY THIS EVENING AND OVER CENTRAL OK/TX
OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF TX TODAY AND TONIGHT. ABUNDANT GULF
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE TX COAST INTO THE BIG BEND REGION
THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT REINFORCED BY
SEVERAL DAYS WORTH OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL TX. THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHERE THIS FRONT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH IT MOST LIKELY WILL EXTEND FROM E-CENTRAL/NERN TX
WSWWD ROUGHLY ALONG I-20 INTO SWRN TX AS FORECAST BY 09Z RUC.
SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 68F SHOULD BE COMMON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY.
VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS S-CENTRAL
AND WEST TX...AS EVIDENCED BY MORNING SOUNDINGS. COMBINATION OF
STRONG EML AND RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A STRONGLY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON WITH RUC AND NAMKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING MLCAPE FROM 2500-3500 J/KG NEAR THE FRONT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND MORNING OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS
ALREADY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED LINES AND SUPERCELLS ACROSS MOST OF
THIS REGION. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE DAY AS 40-50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET /ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING TROUGH/ OVERSPREADS THE RIO GRANDE AND CENTRAL TX BY
LATER TODAY.
ONGOING CLUSTER OF INTENSE STORMS/MCS NOW OVER FAR SERN NM WILL
ILKLEY CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND BUILD SLOWLY SWD INTO SWRN/W-CENTRAL
TX THIS MORNING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND MAF 12Z SOUNDING INDICATE
THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...THOUGH
DIURNAL HEATING INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S F SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
NEAR SURFACE BASED STORMS LATER THIS MORNING. LARGE HAIL WILL BE
PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS STORMS ROOT INTO A WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER.
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND INVOF
HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE DAY AS CAP BREAKS AND AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES. SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY UNFOLD FROM A MYRIAD OF
STORM TYPES...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS/BOW
ECHOES. LARGE HAIL...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME VERY LARGE AND
DAMAGING...WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CORES. WIND DAMAGE MAY
ALSO BECOME LIKELY AND POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD AS STORMS CONSOLIDATE
INTO BOWING SEGMENTS AND SPREAD ENEWD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING AND REMAIN FED BY A VERY UNSTABLE AND CAPPED AIR MASS
OVER S/SERN TX. THOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK TODAY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS STILL EXPECTED GIVEN THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SUPERCELLS AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO ENHANCE LOCAL
SRH.
.EVANS/TAYLOR.. 05/02/2007
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.
No comments:
Post a Comment