SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021240
TXZ000-NMZ000-021445-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0643
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT WED MAY 02 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SW/W-CENTRAL TX...SMALL PART OF EXTREME
SERN NM.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 021240Z - 021445Z
SVR TSTM POTENTIAL FCST TO INCREASE THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS THIS
REGION...AS SFC DIABATIC HEATING NEAR AND S OF WARM FRONT
DIABATICALLY HEATS/DESTABILIZES AIR MASS IN ENVIRONMENT OF FAVORABLE
VERTICAL SHEAR.
AT 12Z...SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED LOW BETWEEN FST-GDP...WITH WARM
FRONT ESEWD BETWEEN FST-INK TO VICINITY UVA AND SAT. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT/MIX NWD ACROSS I-10 DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
MEANWHILE...SFC HEATING SHOULD ERODE WEAK CAP EVIDENT IN MAF RAOB
FROM WNW-ESE...WITH STRONGER CINH EVIDENT AROUND DRT. EVEN THOUGH N
OF WARM FRONT...SHALLOW CHARACTER OF STABLE LAYER IN MAF RAOB
INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR STG-SVR GUSTS GENERATED ALONG SRN EDGE
OF EXISTING COMPLEX TO REACH SFC. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
SWD TOWARD WARM FRONTAL ZONE AND INTO WARM SECTOR THROUGH FORENOON
HOURS. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH TEMPS HEATING INTO 70S F WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG DEVELOPING BY 15Z...AND
INCREASING TO 2000-3000 J/KG BY 17Z ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT OVER
SW TX. ALTHOUGH SFC WINDS MAY REMAIN WEAK...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
35 KT NEAR INK -- INCREASING SWD TO AROUND 50 KT NEAR RIO
GRANDE...WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL AND BOW ECHO POTENTIAL.
REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 642 FOR HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVER NRN PART
OF THIS AREA.
.EDWARDS.. 05/02/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
30540314 31320380 31730378 31890363 32100325 32130278
32130208 31840156 31460126 31010079 30520052 29980054
29440096
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