MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0642

ACUS11 KWNS 021219
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021219
TXZ000-NMZ000-021445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0642
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0719 AM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME SERN NM AND W TX.

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 021219Z - 021445Z

SRN PORTION OF COMPLEX CONTAINING NUMEROUS TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
POSE HAZARD FROM HEAVY RAIN RATES 1-2 INCHES/HOUR AS IT MOVES EWD
THROUGH 15Z. ISOLATED/MRGLLY SVR HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
STG GUSTS ESPECIALLY ALONG SRN EDGE OF TSTM COMPLEX WHERE SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE. MORE WELL-ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL IN AND
NEAR THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MIDMORNING ONWARD...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MORE VIGOROUS DIABATIC HEATING S OF THIS COMPLEX
AND INVOF WARM FRONT. THAT MAY REQUIRE SEPARATE DISCUSSION WITHIN
NEXT 2-3 HOURS. MEANWHILE PRIMARY THREAT WILL REMAIN FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL. MERGING/TRAINING OF CORES WILL ENHANCE THIS PROBLEM.

DIFFUSE SFC WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 12Z FROM BETWEEN
FST-GDP...ESEWD NEAR FST...TO BETWEEN DRT-UVA...AND SHOULD DRIFT/MIX
NWD THROUGH LATE MORNING. RICH MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE BUOYANCY
EVIDENT IN 12Z MAF RAOB LAUNCHED JUST N OF WARM FRONT -- WITH ALMOST
1.25 INCH PW...850 MB DEW POINT AROUND 12 C...AND MEAN MIXING RATIO
APPROXIMATELY 11 G/KG. 25-35 KT ABSOLUTE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE IN
LOW LEVEL ABOVE SFC...AS ISALLOBARIC/ISALLOHYPSIC FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH APCHG UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSETS DIURNAL TENDENCY FOR COUPLING OF
BOUNDARY LAYER TO WEAKEN LLJ. THIS SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN
FAVORABLE STORM-RELATIVE WINDS AS WELL AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN
INFLOW LAYER. LOW LEVEL KINEMATIC PROFILES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SWATH OF FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE/ASCENT IN THIS REGION...SUPPORTING
EWD SHIFT OF CONVECTION FROM SERN NM ACROSS ADJACENT PORTIONS W TX.

ALSO REF NESDIS SATELLITE PRECIP ESTIMATES UNDER WMO HEADER TXUS20
KNES FOR ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE.

.EDWARDS.. 05/02/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

31670392 32400435 33000400 33290377 33470353 33510311
33460242 33180198 32660174 31670195 31540306

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