SWOD48
SPC AC 020848
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CDT WED MAY 02 2007
VALID 051200Z - 101200Z
..DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 5 /SUN/ AS
UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES
REGION AND EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS...AND UPSTREAM WRN U.S TROUGH
EVOLVES INTO CLOSED LOW CUT-OFF FROM NRN STREAM. THIS UPPER PATTERN
WOULD SUGGEST GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TO OCCUR ALONG
THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING DAYS 4 AND 5 /SAT AND SUN/.
HOWEVER...MODEL DIFFERENCES IN INTENSITY/PLACEMENT OF WRN CLOSED
LOW...AND THUS STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL WINDS OVER THIS REGION...
PRECLUDES INCLUSION OF A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA.
BEYOND DAY 5...MODELS DIFFER IN THE EJECTION AND ORIENTATION OF WRN
CLOSED LOW AS IT BECOMES PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES. THUS...WILL ALSO NOT INTRODUCE ANY REGIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AREAS BEYOND DAY 5.
.PETERS.. 05/02/2007
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