SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022305
TXZ000-NMZ000-030030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0653
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0605 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM...TRANSPECOS REGION OF W TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 210...
VALID 022305Z - 030030Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 210
CONTINUES.
AIR MASS ACROSS THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF W TX HAS RECOVERED SOMEWHAT
IN WAKE OF EARLY DAY TSTMS. ENELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS MAINTAINED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BENEATH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT
SPREADING EWD IN TANDEM WITH THE W TX UPPER LOW. THIS HAS BEEN
FAVORABLE FOR TSTM REDEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN.
VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWS A NW-SE ORIENTED BOUNDARY BANKED UP AGAINST
THE MOUNTAINS IN CULBERSON...JEFF-DAVIS...PRESIDO AND BREWSTER
COUNTIES. MOIST ENELY UPSLOPE FLOW AND LATE AFTN HEATING IN WAKE OF
THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TSTMS ACROSS THE TRANSPECOS
REGION/PERMIAN BASIN REGION THROUGH MID-EVENING.
THE VERTICAL SHEAR WAS STRONGEST ALONG/S OF THE PECOS RVR WHERE 45
KT H5 FLOW EXISTS ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPR LOW. BULK SHEAR DROPS
OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AT LATITUDES FARTHER N...BUT THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL COMPENSATE AND LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY
WITH STRONGEST STORMS. FARTHER S... SUPERCELLS WILL BE MOST
PROMINENT IN THE SWRN TX MOUNTAINS...AND GIVEN PRESENCE OF BACKED
LOW-LEVEL FLOW VCNTY THE FRONT...ISOLD TORNADOES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EWD DURING THE EVE...WITH STRONGEST STORMS
FAVORING AREAS NEAR/S OF A PECOS-FORT STOCKTON LINE/STOCKTON PLATEAU
REGION.
.RACY.. 05/02/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
31750628 34220619 34810373 31930059 30040211 29420387
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