SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022008
TXZ000-022145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0649
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF TX TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE BIG BEND
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 209...
VALID 022008Z - 022145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 209 CONTINUES.
IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES HAS TAKEN ON AN INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVE TILT. AND...STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION NOW APPEARS TO BE RAPIDLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE TEXAS BIG BEND
REGION. NEW CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING/INTENSIFYING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER... WHERE
LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP AND SUPPORTIVE OF MIXED LAYER CAPE IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASES TO AROUND 4000 J/KG
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHERE DEW POINTS ARE
AROUND 70F...BUT SIGNIFICANT INHIBITION REMAINS.
WITH SHEAR PROFILES STRENGTHENING AS 40+ KT 500 MB JET NOSES JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND...SUPERCELLS ARE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY. INCREASING 2 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE
BECOMING EVIDENT ALONG LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TEXAS
HILL COUNTRY INTO THE DEL RIO AREA. AND...ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY ENHANCE RISK FOR TORNADOES
AS STORMS GRADUALLY DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
BETWEEN NOW AND 03/00Z.
.KERR.. 05/02/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...MAF...
28680172 29310178 29740209 30080160 30010093 29659986
29689922 28889907 28339959 28360027 28410120
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