SWODY3
SPC AC 020723
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CDT WED MAY 02 2007
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
..CENTRAL PLAINS...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH DAY 3 WITH INDICATION OF WRN U.S. LONGWAVE
TROUGH AMPLIFICATION...AS MID LEVEL IMPULSE DIGS SE TOWARD LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE STRENGTHENS FROM MS RIVER VALLEY
TO HUDSON BAY. A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND REACH THE DAKOTAS/MN BY 12Z SATURDAY.
NAM/GFS APPEAR TO BE PROGRESSING THE DRY LINE TOO QUICKLY EWD ON
FRIDAY. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS THE WRN PART OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE RETURNING NWD THROUGH
THE PLAINS BENEATH PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AXIS OF AT
LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ALONG/E OF DRY LINE...WHILE
STRENGTHENING SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS TO 50 KT WILL SUPPORT STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
A CLUSTER OF TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL
NEB/SD WITHIN WAA REGIME ALONG NOSE OF CENTRAL PLAINS SLY LLJ. THIS
JET SHOULD DECREASE IN STRENGTH FRIDAY MORNING WITH MORNING TSTMS
GENERALLY WEAKENING. NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY ALONG DRY
LINE WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING SUPERCELLULAR AS ASCENT SPREADS NEWD
WITH FOUR CORNERS IMPULSE. LLJ RE-STRENGTHENING FRIDAY EVENING
SHOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH OF TSTM CLUSTERS...SOME
SEVERE...NE TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.
.PETERS.. 05/02/2007
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