MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2037

ACUS11 KWNS 121803
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121803
NMZ000-COZ000-121930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2037
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 121803Z - 121930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...BANDS OF SEMI-DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
NEWD ACROSS N-CNTRL NM DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY
POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SVR WEATHER THREAT...A WW DOES NOT
APPEAR NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION...MID-DAY MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING SWWD FROM WRN KS INTO NERN NM. THIS IS ALLOWING
SURFACE WINDS TO REMAIN BACKED OVER N-CNTRL NM...WHICH IS
MAINTAINING UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS OVER THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOCALLY WARMING INTO THE 60S AND
A COOL MIDLEVEL AIRMASS WILL AID IN MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG.
IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL SELY WINDS VEERING TO SWLY IN THE MIDLEVELS
AND INCREASING IN SPEED TO 70 KT /BASED ON ABX VWP/ IS YIELDING
STRONG LOW- AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS MAY FAVOR
ORGANIZED MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AS A BAND OF
SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS MOVES FROM W-CNTRL/NWRN NM ACROSS N-CNTRL NM.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SVR
WEATHER THREATS...BUT A TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES.

..GARNER/THOMPSON.. 10/12/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT...

LAT...LON 34620497 34180584 34160717 34690772 36530781 36990710
36980585 36560495 35690434 34620497

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