MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2040

ACUS11 KWNS 130219
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130219
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-130315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2040
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0919 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NM/WEST TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 660...

VALID 130219Z - 130315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 660 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH 660 CONTINUES UNTIL 07Z. LARGE HAIL
POTENTIAL...ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED /BUT DIMINISHING/ TORNADO
THREAT...CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN NM AND THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/TX
PANHANDLE.

DISCUSSION...THE MOST INTENSE STORM ACROSS WW 660 IS OCCURRING
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NM WITH A RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELL LOCATED AROUND
25 MILES NORTH OF HOBBS AS OF 0200Z. IN THE SHORT-TERM...LARGE HAIL
WILL REMAIN A DISTINCT THREAT...WITH A BRIEF TORNADO POSSIBLE. IN
SPITE OF ESTIMATED 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/S2...THE WARM SECTOR
AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST NM/TX PANHANDLE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY COOL/DECOUPLE AND THIS SHOULD
TEMPER TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH INCREASINGLY ELEVATED INFLOW OVER
TIME.

FARTHER NORTH...WITH RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS HAVING DIMINISHED
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...AN INCREASINGLY ELEVATED/RESIDUAL
LEFT-SPLIT TSTMS SHOULD PERSIST/EXPAND TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT DRAPES ACROSS NORTHEAST NM/TX PANHANDLE...WITH AID OF
A WARM ADVECTION REGIME. SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
WITH THESE TSTMS. OTHER TSTMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE/SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST NM INTO THE OK PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST KS
THROUGH LATE EVENING.

..GUYER.. 10/13/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36170413 36710371 36330236 36090044 35070061 32340264
32520424 33790356 35190395 36170413

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