SWODY3
SPC AC 260727
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE
LARGE SCALE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE
WESTERN STATES BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AS A STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH DIGS WITHIN A LARGER SCALE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST...A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. AS THIS
OCCURS...A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BEGIN
AMPLIFYING FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...ACROSS EAST CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME...IT APPEARS MOST PROBABLE THAT KYLE WILL TRACK EAST OF CAPE
COD THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF A
CLOSED LOW NOW MIGRATING INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES.
...NEW ENGLAND...
GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE ACCELERATING CIRCULATION
SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE...MINIMIZING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
PRECLUDING AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR TORNADOES.
...NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING THE
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. IT APPEARS STRONGEST MID/UPPER FORCING MAY
NOT SPREAD SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA UNTIL AFTER DARK
SUNDAY EVENING. MOISTURE LEVELS PROBABLY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
HIGH...WITH SIGNIFICANT INHIBITION BENEATH THE REMNANTS OF AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. BUT...EVEN IN THE PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZATION...FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
STEEP LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST LOW
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS...IF FORCING BECOMES SUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
..KERR.. 09/26/2008
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