Friday, September 26, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 262001
SWODY1
SPC AC 261958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN AND
CENTRAL MN AND ADJACENT AREAS...

...PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL MN AND VICINITY...
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED ACROSS PARTS OF ERN SD AND
INTO ADJACENT WRN AND NRN MN THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM N CENTRAL MN SSWWD INTO WRN NEB. WHILE
MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS THIS REGION HAS MOVED
NEWD INTO SWRN ONTARIO...NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED INVOF
THE SURFACE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AS FURTHER HEATING COMBINED WITH
THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING ERN MT/THE WRN
DAKOTAS RESULT IN A CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CAP.

WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INDICATED ACROSS THE RISK AREA AND
LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING/INCREASING TO ROUGHLY 45 KT FROM THE WSW AT
H5...STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE/BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE WEAKENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING.

...ERN NC INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION...
DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN A DRY SLOT OVER THE ERN HALF OF NC AND INTO
SRN VA HAS RESULTED IN MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MIXED-LAYER CAPE UP TO 500 J/KG NOW INDICATED.

WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR APPEARS STILL SUFFICIENT FOR BRIEF LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION -- AND THUS SOME CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO...CONTINUED
WWD MOVEMENT OF THE LOW ACROSS NRN SC ALONG WITH FURTHER WEAKENING
SUGGEST THAT ANY LINGERING SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD WANE BY EARLY
EVENING.

..GOSS.. 09/26/2008

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

No comments: