SWODY3
SPC AC 090730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON APR 09 2012
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT INTO D3/WED WITH A BREAKDOWN OF THE
CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES...AS A PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE SRN CA COAST LATE D2 TRACKS NEWD
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE NRN EXTENT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN
STATES WEDNESDAY WILL BE SEVERAL WEAKER MIDLEVEL IMPULSES TRACKING
NEWD THROUGH THE NWRN U.S./NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. MEANWHILE...A
WEAKER LEAD IMPULSE...POTENTIALLY OF SUBTROPICAL ORIGIN...SHOULD
REACH THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WED AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS
EWD TO THE ERN EXTENT OF THE PLAINS BY 12Z THU.
...SRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL PROMOTE SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS AND STRENGTHENING OF A LEE SIDE TROUGH. SELY LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN WNWWD INTO MORE OF THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /7.5-8 C PER KM/. A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT
WITH VECTORS ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE
SUGGESTS DISCRETE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS THREAT COULD EXTEND
NWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...BUT WEAKER INSTABILITY WILL TEND
TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STRONGER STORMS.
A STRENGTHENING/VEERING SLY TO SSWLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A
COUPLE OF MCS/S PROPAGATING ENEWD INTO THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN INSTABILITY MAY TEND
TO LIMIT AN OVERNIGHT SEVERE THREAT.
...N TX/RED RIVER VALLEY TO LA...
MOISTURE RESIDING ALONG A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS THESE
AREAS COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WHILE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-30 KT
SUPPORTS MULTICELL STORM MODE. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST AND/OR HAIL THREAT.
...NRN ID REGION...
THE NRN EXTENT OF A PACIFIC FRONT ADVANCING E/NEWD ACROSS THE WRN
STATES ON WED WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AN INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR ACROSS ERN WA AND
ID COMBINED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY WOULD SUGGEST AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE. UNCERTAINTY IN OVERALL COVERAGE AND THE
WEAKER INSTABILITY PRECLUDE THE INCLUSION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS REGION WILL BE MONITORED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS FOR AN INCREASE IN A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
..PETERS.. 04/09/2012
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