Monday, April 9, 2012

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 090859
SWOD48
SPC AC 090859

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT MON APR 09 2012

VALID 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE...WHICH
EXPECTED TO START ON D3/WED...WILL PROGRESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SWLY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SWRN STATES THROUGH OK AND
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION AS A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH EVOLVES IN THE WEST.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING AN INCREASE IN SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS DURING D4/THU
THROUGH D6/SAT. SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE EAST OF A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER WRN KS WILL RESULT IN RICH MOISTURE RETURN INTO
OK/KS ON D4/D5 AND THEN EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY ON D6. THIS COMBINED WITH ENEWD EXTENSION OF STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
THROUGH D6. SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM MID TO LATE
THIS WEEK ACROSS THE REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREAS SUCH THAT
ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
D4...D5...AND D6. THE STRONGEST BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED ON D6/SAT
WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA ALSO EXPANDING SWD SOME INTO N
TX AND NEWD INTO SWRN IA.

BEYOND D6...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS...BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDE THE INCLUSION OF ANY
ADDITIONAL REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREAS.

..PETERS.. 04/09/2012

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