MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0478

ACUS11 KWNS 091854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091854
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-092030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0478
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES/SWRN KS/WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 091854Z - 092030Z

SLOWLY INCREASING SEVERE/TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA WILL LIKELY WARRANT TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING ACROSS THE ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES AND
INTO WRN OK...WHILE A MID CLOUD DECK CONTINUES EXPANDING FARTHER TO
THE W ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. AS A RESULT...APPRECIABLE HEATING
CONTINUES...WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES NOW INDICATING ROUGHLY 1500 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE OVER THE ERN PANHANDLES AND ADJACENT WRN OK/SWRN KS
E OF THE MOISTURE GRADIENT/WEAK DRYLINE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED MID CLOUD DECK LIKELY REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VERY
SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING ALOFT NOW SPREADING INTO THIS AREA.
THUS...EXPECT THAT STORM DEVELOPMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
IMMINENT -- POSSIBLY ARISING FROM WITHIN A NEW CU FIELD NOW
DEVELOPING OVER BEAVER CO OK/CLARK CO KS NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE WARM FRONT.

GREATEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR -- AND THUS MOST SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO
POTENTIAL -- IS APPARENT NEAR AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM
FRONT...BUT WITH LOW CLOUDS -- AND THUS A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER --
STILL PERSISTENT ACROSS MOST OF WRN KS...THE CORRIDOR OF POTENTIAL
IS FAIRLY NARROW ATTM. S OF THE FRONT...THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING ESEWD
INTO WRN OK THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

..GOSS.. 04/09/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON 38350079 38039945 37499831 36479753 35849845 35319906
35299923 35260066 36640060 37610066 38350079

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