SWODY1
SPC AC 100100
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012
VALID 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...
...WRN OK/NW TX...
WATER VAPOR/RUC IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOW A UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SRN ROCKIES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE SRN PLAINS AND A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED IN NRN AND WRN OK. AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED FROM NW TX NWD THROUGH WRN OK ALONG WHICH
SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS
MAINTAIN AND MOVE THE CONVECTION SEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WRN OK
AND NW TX THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WRN OK AND NW TX
THIS EVENING SHOW MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE WITH
50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM.
THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR LARGE HAIL AS
SUPERCELLS PERSIST INTO THE MID AND LATE EVENING. HAIL GREATER THAN
2 INCHES IN DIAMETER SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE MORE VIGOROUS CELLS AND A
TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS GRADUALLY
INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS EVENING SUGGESTING A LINE OF
STORMS ORIENTED FROM NE TO SW WILL ORGANIZE AND MOVE ACROSS SW OK
INTO NW TX. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...THEN THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT
SHOULD INCREASE WITH A SEVERE THREAT GRADUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTH TX LATE THIS EVENING POSSIBLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
...WEST TX/SE NM...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE SRN ROCKIES WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS LOCATED FROM FAR WEST TX EXTENDING NNEWD ONTO THE
CAPROCK NEAR LUBBOCK. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
THIS CORRIDOR WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE MIDLAND 00Z SOUNDING HAS AN SBCAPE OF
1100 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KT AND 850 TO 500 MB
LAPSE RATE NEAR 7.5 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WITH ISOLATED HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES
IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS GRADUALLY INCREASE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FROM LUBBOCK SSWWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS
INTO THE MIDLAND AREA SUGGESTING A SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.
...SE KS/NE OK...
A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING IN SE KS JUST AHEAD OF
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAP0R IMAGERY. THIS
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ALONG THE NERN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
NEAR AN AXIS OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS ARE
ELEVATED IN NATURE...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT. THE THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS AND SHOULD AFFECT PARTS OF NERN OK WHERE A 5 PERCENT HAIL
PROBABILITY IS MAINTAINED.
..BROYLES.. 04/10/2012
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