SWODY1
SPC AC 091607
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 AM CDT MON APR 09 2012
VALID 091630Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
KS...WESTERN AND CENTRAL OK...AND PARTS OF NORTH/NORTHWEST TX...
...KS/OK/TX PANHANDLE...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A BROAD ZONE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN STATES WITH
SEVERAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE ROCKIES. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER UT/CO AND
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS INCREASING OVER PARTS OF ERN CO/SWRN
KS/WRN OK/TX PANHANDLE WHERE LOW CLOUDS ARE ERODING AND MOISTURE IS
INCREASING. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON WITH AN AXIS OF 2000-3000 J/KG SBCAPE FROM
SOUTHWEST KS INTO WESTERN OK AND THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN INTENSIFYING LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
KS AND NORTHWEST OK TO THE EAST OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND IN REGION
OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES...AND SUFFICIENT CAPE WILL
PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING...WHICH MAY ALSO SUPPORT A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES AS THE
STORMS TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN OK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK.
HOWEVER...WILL RE-EVALUATE RISK CATEGORY FOR 20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE.
...WEST TX/SOUTHEAST NM...
WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS HAD TRANSPORTED 50S DEWPOINTS
INTO MUCH OF WEST TX AND SOUTHEAST NM TODAY. THIS REGION WILL SEE
FULL SUNSHINE AND RAPID HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA FOR LATER
TODAY SHOW STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RATHER HIGH PWAT
VALUES. THIS COMBINATION WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
..HART/HURLBUT.. 04/09/2012
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