SWODY1
SPC AC 120046
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 PM CST SUN DEC 11 2011
VALID 120100Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SERN STATES...
TRENDS IN LIGHTNING DATA...THOUGH SPORADIC...INDICATED THE
TRANSITION FOR THE CONVECTIVE/TSTM POTENTIAL SHIFTING FROM THE FL
PENINSULA TO FARTHER N ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE INTO PARTS OF
SRN/CENTRAL AL/GA IS UNDERWAY EARLY THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/MODEL DATA SHOWED A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE SRN
ATLANTIC COAST. FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY
FROM THE SERN STATES AND LIMIT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS
ALONG THE ERN EXTENT OF A SURFACE FRONT WHICH WAS ANALYZED FROM
VICINITY OF PIE TO DAB.
MEANWHILE...FORCING FOR ASCENT/STEEPENING 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES
ATTENDANT TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING EWD FROM SRN AL/ADJACENT
NRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO THE SERN STATES TONIGHT.
00Z TLH/JAX/ATL SOUNDINGS COMPARED WITH THE 12Z THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES SHOWED LOW LEVEL MOISTENING/WAA AND MIDLEVEL COOLING SINCE
12Z. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SUPPORT AN EXPANDING AREA OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTMS THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND THUS HAVE
EXTENDED THE TSTM THREAT NWD. ALTHOUGH CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL...MEAGER AMOUNTS OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY WILL PRECLUDE SVR
HAIL RISKS.
...OFFSHORE SRN CA...
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER AND OFFSHORE CENTRAL
AND SRN CA AS THE SRN EXTENT OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
APPROACHES THIS REGION. GREATEST MIDLEVEL COOLING AND BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE SRN CA COAST...AND
PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF A GENERAL TSTM AREA.
..PETERS.. 12/12/2011
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