SWODY1
SPC AC 120454
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1054 PM CST SUN DEC 11 2011
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SERN STATES AT THE START OF
DAY 1 IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR AS HEIGHTS RISE/RIDGE BUILDS NWD ACROSS
THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY DOWNSTREAM OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING
SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE WRN STATES.
...SRN GA AND PARTS OF NRN AND EAST CENTRAL FL...
THE RISK FOR SCATTERED TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS ENHANCED NEAR
NRN FL COASTAL AREAS...AND WITHIN A ZONE OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
WARM ADVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF NRN FL AND SRN GA. HOWEVER...THIS
POTENTIAL IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...
AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SERN STATES
TROUGH.
....SRN CA COAST TO SWRN AZ...
A CLOSED LOW FORMING EARLY DAY 1 ALONG THE CA COAST WITHIN THE SRN
EXTENT OF THE WRN STATES LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW WILL SETTLE
SWD AND BE LOCATED JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST AT 12Z TUESDAY...A
COUPLE OF IMPULSES EMANATING FROM THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH WILL
MOVE INLAND ACROSS SRN CA TO AZ. FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THESE
FEATURES AND DESTABILIZATION/COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /-22 TO
-26 C AT 500 MB/ SUGGEST A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SRN
CA COAST...AND POSSIBLY INLAND OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND
SWRN AZ. GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
..PETERS/HURLBUT.. 12/12/2011
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