SWODY3
SPC AC 110752
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN A SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME
...IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT A SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW/UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIFT INLAND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHERN BAJA THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS STATES DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...ACCOMPANIED BY THE
STRENGTHENING OF A SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE RETURN FROM A MODIFYING
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH
GENERALLY ABOVE A RESIDUAL...BUT ERODING...NEAR SURFACE COOL/STABLE
LAYER. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME POTENTIALLY
WEAKLY UNSTABLE IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHERN INTO PARTS OF
NORTHWEST TEXAS...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY INCREASE THROUGH THE
60S...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTING ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER WILL CAP NEAR SURFACE AND ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS BENEATH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS STATES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY TO SUPPORT AN APPRECIABLE RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS.
..KERR.. 12/11/2011
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