SWODY3
SPC AC 100704
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 AM CDT SAT APR 10 2010
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...NRN PLAINS...
BEYOND THE DAY2 PERIOD MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE ROCKIES
TOWARD THE PLAINS. GFS IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH
WITH THE EJECTING SPEED MAX ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY ALLOWING
SUBSTANTIAL LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO OVERSPREAD ERN MT/WRN DAKOTAS
LATE. 00Z NAM...HOWEVER...SUGGESTS SUBSTANTIAL DIGGING WILL OCCUR
INTO SRN AZ. QUESTIONABLE MOVEMENT/TIMING DURING THIS PERIOD DOES
NOT LEND A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL CONVECTIVE SCENARIO.
HOWEVER...BROAD WARM ADVECTION WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SFC WARM FRONT RETREATS INTO THE DAKOTAS. IT
APPEARS SUFFICIENT MOISTENING WILL RESULT IN THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT APPARENTLY FAVORABLE FOR ROBUST ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF WARM FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN CONJUNCTION WITH
STRONGER EPISODES OF LLJ. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE
SPEED/MOVEMENT OF UPPER TROUGH WILL INTRODUCE 5% PROBABILITIES FOR
HAIL ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION FORCING.
..DARROW.. 04/10/2010
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