MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0236

ACUS11 KWNS 192005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192005
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-192130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0236
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/ERN KS...WRN MO...EXTREME NWRN
AR...MOST OF OK EXCEPT SERN PORTIONS AND PANHANDLE.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 51...

VALID 192005Z - 192130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 51
CONTINUES.

SVR THREAT SHOULD PERSIST IN AND NEAR EXISTING WW AREA OVER PORTIONS
OK...KS AND SWRN MO BEYOND SCHEDULED 21Z EXPIRATION TIME...THEREFORE
ADDITIONAL OR REPLACEMENT WW MAY BE REQUIRED BEFORE THEN.

SERIES OF SFC MESOANALYSES INDICATE WARM FRONT HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE
NWD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL/ERN OK...EXCEPT FOR ONE SEGMENT DESCRIBED
BELOW...AMIDST BLEND OF MIXING/ADVECTIVE PROCESSES. AS OF
1930Z...CONVENTIONAL AND MESONET DATA INDICATE WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW
OR INFLECTION HAS FORMED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN
OUN-TUL...COMPELLING SMALL SEWD MOVEMENT OF FRONT OVER CENTRAL OK
AND MAXIMIZING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN SUPPORT OF LINEAR TSTM BAND
THAT EXTENDS INTO LAYER OF ELEVATED INFLOW ACROSS SERN KS. WITH
MLCINH NEARLY GONE IN CENTRAL/SRN OK WARM SECTOR...WEAK FRONTAL LIFT
MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT DISCRETELY BACKBUILDING DEVELOPMENT
ALONG BOUNDARY S OF EXISTING WW. FARTHER N...FAVORABLE ELEVATED
MUCAPE OF 800-1300 J/KG IS ESTIMATED OVER SRN KS AND NRN OK BASED ON
MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 30-40 KT IN
SUPPORT OF ADDITIONAL HAIL POTENTIAL FROM CONVECTION IN THAT REGION.

MEANWHILE...ACROSS TX PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS WRN OK NW OF
FRONT...EARLIER DENSE LOW-MIDLEVEL CLOUD COVER IS BREAKING UP WITH
POCKETS OF SFC HEATING LEADING TO DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.
THOUGH MLCINH REMAINS PROHIBITIVE FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION
ATTM...ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS
WHICH THEN WOULD MOVE NEWD TO ENEWD TOWARD WRN OK. LIMITING FACTORS
WILL INCLUDE LARGER INITIAL STATIC STABILITY NEAR SFC...LACK OF
LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT ALOFT BEHIND EJECTING SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATION...WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND DIFFUSE NATURE OF
SFC BOUNDARIES NW OF FRONT.

..EDWARDS.. 03/19/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON 35309978 37819979 38529890 39049674 38439452 37759382
36479402 35939495 35479536 34879677 34449940 35309978

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.