SWOD48
SPC AC 190906
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0406 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011
VALID 221200Z - 271200Z
CORRECTED SEEM TO SEEMS MID PARAGRAPH
...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUE/WED FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN APPALACHIANS...
AS A VIGOROUS UPPER IMPULSE EMERGING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
TURNS EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A BLOCKING CENTRAL CANADIAN
RIDGE...STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS APPEAR LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD
THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEEP CYCLONE MIGRATING ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH CONCERN STILL EXISTS OVER THE LIKELY
MARGINAL NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN...WHICH MAY
SUPPRESS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...A REGIONAL AREA OF SEVERE STORMS
STILL SEEMS PROBABLE GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMIC
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS THREAT
SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON
WEDNESDAY...AS STRONGER FORCING TURNS SOUTHEASTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH/DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...THE SPREAD
GROWS CONSIDERABLY AMONG MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONCERNING SHORT WAVE
DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THE PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN...AND THE RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS BECOMES MORE UNCLEAR.
..KERR.. 03/19/2011
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