SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191030
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-191300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0233
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0530 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK/SERN KS/SWRN MO/NWRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 191030Z - 191300Z
ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE -- AND POSSIBLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
-- OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL
FOR SMALL TO MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL. WW NOT EXPECTED AS THREAT FOR
SEVERE-SIZED HAIL APPEARS LIMITED/LOCAL.
LATEST RADAR SHOWS STORMS CONTINUING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS NERN OK AND NWD TO THE VICINITY OF THE KS
BORDER...AS 35 TO 40KT SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
ERN HALF OF OK. EVENING /05Z/ LMN /LAMONT OK/ RAOB REVEALS STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND ROUGHLY 1000 J/KG CAPE ABOVE AN INVERSION NEAR
H8...AND THIS DEGREE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ROUGHLY IN LINE WITH
MODEL FORECASTS OF A SWATH OF 1000 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA.
ALONG WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...INCREASING FLOW WITH HEIGHT
THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER IS YIELDING SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/WEAK ROTATION...AS EVIDENT IN A FEW STRONGER
CELLS ATTM. GIVEN THIS...THREAT FOR HAIL IS LIKELY -- AND MAY
PERHAPS REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS.
..GOSS.. 03/19/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 36579337 36459364 35869466 36279649 36809735 37409689
37689381 37009346 36579337
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