SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191230
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-191330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0234
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...TX AND OK PANHANDLES INTO NWRN OK AND PARTS OF SRN
KS
CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE
VALID 191230Z - 191330Z
STORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...WITH
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE. WW NOT EXPECTED
ATTM...BUT MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITH TIME THIS MORNING.
MORNING RAOBS FROM THE SRN PLAINS REGION THIS AM REVEAL STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED CAPE THAN FORECAST BY THE
MODELS. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ADVANCING ACROSS NM AHEAD OF AN UPPER
WAVE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
AND VICINITY -- AIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED MODERATE INSTABILITY.
WHILE SHEAR REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE
TROPOSPHERE...STRONGER FLOW ABOVE 400 MB -- JUST ABOVE THE MIDDLE OF
THE POTENTIAL CLOUD-BEARING LAYER -- APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED/ROTATING CELLS. THEREFORE...THREAT FOR HAIL WITH
LOCALLY-SEVERE STORMS APPEARS GREATER THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED.
WHILE WATCH IS NOT IMMINENT...MORNING OUTLOOK WILL BE UPGRADED TO
SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS AREA...AND WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER
THIS MORNING.
..GOSS.. 03/19/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 35999796 34730055 34960222 35940256 36460237 37469996
37289793 35999796
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment