Saturday, March 19, 2011

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 200052
SWODY1
SPC AC 200050

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

VALID 200100Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF W TX...

...W TX...
WARM ADVECTION WITH A STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES MORE STABLE AND CAPPING LIMITS ANY FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LARGE HAIL. FOR
MORE INFORMATION...SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #0237.

...SC/ERN GA NEXT FEW HOURS...
00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE WITH
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS.
HOWEVER...ONGOING STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NE.
UNTIL THAT TIME...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER CORES.

...NERN KS...ERN NEB...SW IA...NWRN MO...
00Z DDC SOUNDING SHOWS MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH A
RATHER MOIST LOW TO MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRENGTHENING 50+ KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN A RASH OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM MAINLY AFTER 06Z FROM NERN KS/SERN
NEB INTO IA AND NRN MO. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL FAVOR HAIL
PRODUCTION ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL.

..JEWELL.. 03/20/2011

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