SWODY1
SPC AC 190527
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD ALONG WRN U.S. COAST. SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE
AND INTO THE WRN STATES AND CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS
INITIALLY OVER THE CNTRL U.S. 12Z SATURDAY WILL SHIFT EWD REACHING
THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE SWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES WHILE WRN EXTENSION
OF THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NWD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH NRN TX AND OK.
DRYLINE WILL SETUP ALONG THE TX-NEW MEXICO BORDER.
...NRN OK THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN KS...
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THETA-E ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NOCTURNAL
LLJ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER OK INTO SRN
KS EARLY SATURDAY. ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT NEWD THROUGH ERN KS AND NERN
OK EVENTUALLY REACHING MO DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LLJ VEERS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH IMPULSE THAT WILL EJECT NEWD FROM THE SWRN U.S.
THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. INFLUX OF MODIFIED CP AIR WITH 50S
DEWPOINTS BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED NORTH OF
RETREATING BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO AN MCS. EFFECTIVE
VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40+ KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED ORGANIZED
STRUCTURES WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. AT THIS TIME...COVERAGE OF
ANY SEVERE EVENTS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15%.
...WRN TX...
SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE MODIFIED CP AIR
WITH POTENTIAL FOR 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON EAST OF
DRYLINE. LOW CLOUDS MAY DELAY DESTABILIZATION IN THIS REGION.
HOWEVER....AS CLOUDS MIX OUT...DIABATIC WARMING AND DEEP MIXING IN
VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION DURING THE AFTERNOON. EJECTING WEAK IMPULSE AND MODEST
DRYLINE CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE.
PRESENCE OF CAP AND RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING SUGGEST STORM COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. HOWEVER...40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR NEAR 1000 J/KG MLCAPE WILL SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
..DIAL/HURLBUT.. 03/19/2011
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