SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192020
TXZ000-NMZ000-192145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0237
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF W TX...EXTREME SERN NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 192020Z - 192145Z
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS INCREASING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WRN TX AND FAR SERN NM...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE IS TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT A WW ATTM.
STRONG HEATING AND AMBIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO YIELD A
NORTH-SOUTH ZONE OF INCREASING INSTABILITY EAST OF A DRYLINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR HOB TO THE UNITED STATES/MEXICO BORDER 40 MILES
WSW OF 6R6...AND SOUTH OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. WITHIN THIS REGION...RECENT RUC
MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG...HIGHEST
NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRYLINE AND STATIONARY FRONT SOUTHEAST
OF HOB /WHERE LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS NOTED/.
RECENT CU DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR WRN TX /INCLUDING THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS/...WHERE THE STRONG INSOLATION HAS RESULTED IN 0-3-KM
LAPSE RATES APPROACHING DRY ADIABATIC. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
CONVECTION COULD BE STEERED INTO THE GREATER/DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF
THE DRYLINE...WHERE IT COULD DEEPEN AND BECOME SEVERE. FARTHER
NORTH...INCREASING SFC CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT/DRYLINE
INTERSECTION COULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND SFC PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL WAVE HAVE
RECENTLY BEEN NOTED IN THIS REGION. THIS THREAT FOR CONVECTION COULD
EXTEND FARTHER NORTH INTO NWRN TX AS THE FRONT RETREATS NWD IN
RESPONSE TO DISSIPATING LOW-LEVEL STRATOCU.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 35 TO 45 KT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED /POTENTIALLY SUPERCELLULAR/ STORM
STRUCTURES...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE RETREATING FRONT...STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD
ENHANCE THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER
DEEP-LAYER FORCING WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
THUS...A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
..COHEN.. 03/19/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 34300028 32870026 32280089 31300149 30610169 30310230
30630273 31160286 32450327 33570339 34420301 34690171
34300028
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