SWODY1
SPC AC 192307
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0607 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011
VALID 192000Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF W TX INTO NRN
OK AND KS...
...THIS IS AN OUTLOOK AMENDMENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE PREVIOUS
OUTLOOK. OTHER PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ARE NOT BEING ADDRESSED WITH
THIS AMENDMENT...
...W TX INTO OK/KS...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS NOW EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF W TX WITH
MAINLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT. HAVE UPDATED HAIL PROBABILITIES TO MATCH
WITH LOCATION OF CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND ONGOING
CONVECTION.
REMAINING PORTIONS OF SLIGHT RISK FARTHER N INTO OK AND KS WILL
LIKELY BE REMOVED BY 01Z.
..SPC.. 03/19/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011/
BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES TODAY...WHILE A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CO/NM MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF TX/OK INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.
...OK/KS/MO...
MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING AT THIS
TIME OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OK AND EASTERN KS. THIS ACTIVITY
INTENSIFIED THIS MORNING AS ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERSPREAD THE REGION. MORNING RAOBS SHOWS STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODERATE ELEVATED CAPE...AND SUFFICIENT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS THEY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO MO
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT FARTHER EAST
IS IN QUESTION AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
NEVERTHELESS HAVE ADJUSTED SLIGHT RISK A LITTLE FARTHER EAST.
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS OVER WESTERN OK AND IS IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. SO FAR...THESE STORMS HAVE
BEEN IN A DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR MASS. HOWEVER...INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS STORMS SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN OK.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL.
...OK/TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
SOUTHWEST OK AND WEST TX. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF INITIATION
APPEARS TO BE IN OK...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF STORMS DECREASING
FARTHER SOUTH. IF A STORM CAN FORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WOULD BE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE. EVEN A TORNADO COULD OCCUR MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST OK WHERE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR.
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