SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170535
TXZ000-170700-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0121
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 PM CST THU FEB 16 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP S TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 170535Z - 170700Z
AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT /DIAMETERS APPROACHING OR LOCALLY EXCEEDING
1 INCH/ ARE POSSIBLE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX /SERN HIDALGO...CAMERON AND
WILLACY COUNTIES/ BETWEEN 06-08Z. A SPATIOTEMPORAL LIMIT AND A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH.
ALTHOUGH DIABATIC COOLING HAS SUPPORTED AN INCREASE IN SURFACE BASED
INHIBITION OVER DEEP S TX...SUSTAINED ELEVATED STORMS TRACKING NEWD
FROM NERN MEXICO ARE LIKELY BEING FED BY GREATER INSTABILITY
RESIDING S OF THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER. MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT ARE SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUED
SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AS ACTIVITY TRACKS NEWD INTO THE U.S.
SIDE OF THE BORDER INCLUDING BRO.
..PETERS.. 02/17/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BRO...
LAT...LON 26119858 26549812 26739696 25959674 25689699 25859764
25959811 26119858
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