SWODY1
SPC AC 281940
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011
VALID 282000Z - 291200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK AT 20Z.
..BROYLES.. 10/28/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011/
...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ENEWD FROM THE TN
VALLEY TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS TODAY...WHILE AN UPSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFIES TOWARD THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NE GULF
COAST...AND CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OVERNIGHT JUST OFF THE
NC COAST. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEALED ONLY MINIMAL INSTABILITY
INVOF THE COLD FRONT...AND IT APPEARS THAT ANY THREAT FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE
WEAK INSTABILITY. INSTABILITY IS MORE PRONOUNCED WITHIN THE DEEP
MOIST PLUME OVER CENTRAL/S FL TO THE NE OF WEAKENING TD RINA /SEE
LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR DETAILS/...WHERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED ACROSS THE
CONUS THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION OF E SHORE OF LAKE
MI...WHERE COLD AIR ALOFT AND SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO BUOYANCY
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION.
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