SWODY2
SPC AC 030503
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 AM CDT SUN OCT 03 2010
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...
DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A SPLITTING LARGER SCALE TROUGH
PROGRESSING INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST STATES...WILL GRADUALLY
EVOLVE INTO A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE
SIERRA NEVADA...AND BECOME INCREASINGLY DETACHED FROM THE PREVAILING
BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS CANADA.
AT THE SAME TIME...A CLOSED LOW APPEARS LIKELY TO LINGER NEAR THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PASSING TO ITS NORTH...WITHIN THE STRONGER WESTERLIES...COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO AN EASTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION. BUT IT SEEMS
MORE PROBABLE THAT ANY MOTION WILL BE SLOW...AND GENERALLY IN
RESPONSE TO IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF ITS
CIRCULATION CENTER. AS A RESULT...A CONTINUING CONFLUENT REGIME
FROM AN UPSTREAM RIDGE INTO THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD MAINTAIN A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE RIDGE...FROM THE WESTERN GULF
COAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE A
RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND PROBABLY ANY
POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIVE DESTABILIZATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES...
WHILE A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
MONDAY...AHEAD OF THE INLAND ADVANCING TROUGH...IT STILL APPEARS
THAT DESTABILIZATION WILL BE TOO MEAGER TO SUPPORT AN APPRECIABLE
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER WIND
FIELDS AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW...ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND LOWER COLORADO VALLEY AREA. IF EARLY
DAY CLOUD COVER DOES NOT STRONGLY IMPEDE SURFACE HEATING...IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ONE OR TWO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS COULD
FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AIDED BY STRENGTHENING
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.
..KERR.. 10/03/2010
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