SWODY3
SPC AC 030706
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 AM CDT SUN OCT 03 2010
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE UPPER PATTERN FROM
LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A PAIR OF CLOSED LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER...ONE NEAR/EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... AND ANOTHER
OVER CALIFORNIA...GENERALLY CUT OFF FROM STRONGER WESTERLIES
EXTENDING IN A BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC BELT ACROSS CANADA.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE MOVEMENT OF THESE
FEATURES...WHICH MAY LARGELY BE IN RESPONSE TO EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATIONS PIVOTING AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTERS. BUT GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERN LOW MAY SHIFT TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE THE WESTERN LOW SUBTLY RETROGRADES TO THE
WEST OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.
WHILE WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE OFF THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...LOW-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN PROMINENT FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE MAINTENANCE
OF A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLY STRATIFIED ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...WITH LOW CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES.
HOWEVER...DESTABILIZATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MOST AREAS.
...PARTS OF THE SRN GREAT BASIN AND LOWER COLORADO VALLEY...
STRENGTHENING OF DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR LIKELY
WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CLOSED LOW INTO AND THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL
PROBABLY BECOME RATHER FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF A 50-70 KT CYCLONIC 500 MB JET STREAK. AND AT LEAST
SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO... PARTICULARLY
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. HOWEVER TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING INSTABILITY...AND THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF SUPPORTING MID/UPPER FORCING...TO JUSTIFY SLIGHT RISK
PROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME.
..KERR.. 10/03/2010
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