SWODY1
SPC AC 040044
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CDT SUN OCT 03 2010
VALID 040100Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST AND THIS FEATURE WILL DIG SSEWD TONIGHT TOWARD THE CA
COAST. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING
ACROSS THE SWRN STATES WITH THE GREATEST STORM COVERAGE IN CNTRL NM.
THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED IN MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT
ON THE CANNON AIR FORCE BASE WSR-88D VWP WITH SUBSTANTIAL VEERING
WITH HEIGHT BELOW 3 KM AGL. IN SPITE OF THIS...INSTABILITY DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE AS GREAT AS THE PREVIOUS 2 DAYS WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
ESTIMATING THE MAX SBCAPE IN THE 500 TO 750 J/KG RANGE. THIS SHOULD
KEEP THE CONVECTION IN CNTRL NM UNORGANIZED ESPECIALLY AS SFC TEMPS
COOL THIS EVENING.
FURTHER WEST ACROSS AZ AND CA...HEIGHTS ARE FALLING AHEAD THE
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
TAPPING A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE
EXCEPTION BEING IN SRN AND CNTRL CA WHERE SBCAPE VALUES ARE
ESTIMATED AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS COULD HELP MAINTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE CA COAST. HOWEVER...THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
ESPECIALLY AS SFC TEMPS COOL DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
..BROYLES.. 10/04/2010
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