Sunday, October 3, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 031552
SWODY1
SPC AC 031550

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 AM CDT SUN OCT 03 2010

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...INTERIOR SWRN STATES...
OLD UPPER LOW HAS OPENED INTO A TROUGH AND NOW DRIFTING NEWD ACROSS
SRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AS MUCH STRONGER TROUGHING DEVELOPS TOWARD
THE W COAST.

CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL PRIMARILY DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH AND AHEAD OF WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH AS
STEERING FLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE S.

STEEP LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AND SFC HEATING WILL YIELD SBCAPE
OF 500-1000 J/KG OVER THE LWR CO RVR VLY THIS AFTERNOON. SCTD TSTMS
LIKELY WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
PROPAGATE TOWARD ADJACENT DESERT VALLEYS.

INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
ISOLD DOWNBURSTS DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE. COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED...PRECLUDING MORE THAN A 5% SEVERE WIND THREAT.

..HALES/SMITH.. 10/03/2010

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