SWODY1
SPC AC 031247
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT SUN OCT 03 2010
VALID 031300Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH CLOSED LOW IN THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE
RCKYS/HI PLNS WILL PERSIST INTO MON. FARTHER W...SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER SRN CA EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT ACCELERATES NE AHEAD OF
AMPLIFYING LARGER SCALE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE E PACIFIC.
...SWRN STATES...
MODERATE MOISTURE /WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS RANGING THROUGH THE
40S AND 50S F AND WITH PW AROUND 1.00 INCH/...STEEP LOW TO MID LVL
LAPSE RATES...AND SFC HEATING WILL YIELD SBCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG
OVER THE LWR CO RVR VLY TODAY. SCTD TSTMS LIKELY WILL ONCE AGAIN
FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH VORT
MAXIMA/BANDS OF ASCENT ON NRN/ERN SIDES OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH.
INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
ISOLD DOWNBURSTS DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE. COVERAGE OF ANY SVR
EVENTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SVR
PROBABILITIES.
FARTHER E OVER SRN CO AND NM...UPR RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EWD
RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO WEAKEN MEAN FLOW/SHEAR
ACROSS REGION...AND MINIMIZE FORCING FOR ASCENT. NEVERTHELESS...AFTN
DESTABILIZATION MAY SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTN STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 10/03/2010
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