DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111242
SWODY1
SPC AC 111239

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2008

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..S FL...
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE FL KEYS AND CUBA INDICATE A
RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S/ IN
THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE FL KEYS. ALTHOUGH LAPSE
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AS WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO SRN FL AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MARGINAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. MLCAPES
SHOULD APPROACH 500 J/KG...AS EVIDENCED BY 12Z SOUNDING FROM
EYW...AND EXPECT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SRN FRINGE OF
HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACT ON A WEAKLY CAPPED
AIR MASS.

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER SRN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL JET WITH RATHER
STRONG WLY FLOW ABOVE 6-7 KM AGL. THE MODEST DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR MAY PROMOTE A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT MORE
ORGANIZED TSTM POTENTIAL AND NO SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES WILL BE
INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST.

..W TX...
VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER ERN NM/FAR WRN TX AT 12Z WILL TRANSLATE SEWD
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL COLD POOL /-22 TO
-24 C AT 500 MB/ AND DAYTIME HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES BY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED
/BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S/...THOUGH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL RESULT IN POCKETS OF WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES
OF 100-300 J/KG.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE 11/21Z-12/03Z TIME FRAME OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO CONCHO
VALLEY ALONG AND AHEAD OF WEAK LEE TROUGH. SOME SMALL HAIL MAY EVEN
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS GIVEN THE COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.

.EVANS/MEAD.. 03/11/2008

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