SWODY3
SPC AC 110721
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2008
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..EAST TX/LOWER MS VALLEY...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS GRADUALLY TRENDING TOWARD A POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS EAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATER
THIS WEEK. LARGE SCALE TROUGHING WILL EVOLVE OVER THE MIDDLE PARTS
OF THE COUNTRY WITH A CORE OF STRONGER MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED
TO EXTEND FROM CA...SEWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES/WEST TX. THIS PATTERN
EVOLUTION SHOULD WITH TIME INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A WEAK
FRONTAL ZONE SOMEWHERE OVER N TX/OK...BEFORE LIFTING NEWD. MODELS
DIFFER ON PLACEMENT AND MIGRATION OF SFC CYCLOGENESIS WHICH
ULTIMATELY LENDS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TO THIS FORECAST.
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY RETURN WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY
DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY OF LLJ IN RESPONSE TO MID-HIGH LEVEL WLYS.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...SOME OF IT
STRONG...WILL INCREASE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF
OK/TX/LOWER MS VALLEY BEGINNING THURSDAY...PERHAPS EVEN LATER IN THE
WEEK ON FRIDAY. NAM IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN SFC LOW EJECTING
NEWD INTO AR LATE THURSDAY WHILE GFS IS SLOWER IN THIS EVOLUTION.
IF GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS THEN A SLIGHT RISK
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS REGION.
.DARROW.. 03/11/2008
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