SWODY2
SPC AC 110533
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2008
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..FL...
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN MARGINAL ACROSS THE CONUS DURING
THE DAY2 PERIOD PRIMARILY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. HOWEVER...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA AHEAD OF LOW
LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL EJECT ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF
MEXICO TOWARD FL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE ACROSS THIS REGION AS LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK.
EVEN SO...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR DEEP CONVECTION AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
..SERN KS/NERN OK/SWRN MO/NWRN AR...
FARTHER NW...LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO
MO LATE IN THE PERIOD. SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY
MOISTEN PROFILES ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AFTER 13/06Z. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SERN
KS/NERN OK INTO SWRN MO/NWRN AR AS 100-300 J/KG MUCAPE IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THIS REGION. WITHIN THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION THERE MAY BE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
..OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS MN/IA LATE IN THE PERIOD
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE IT
APPEARS SFC WARM FRONT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS IT LIFTS NWD
ACROSS IL/IND/OH. STRONG ASCENT NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION ATOP A VERY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE OBSERVED ACROSS THIS REGION LATE IN
THE PERIOD.
.DARROW.. 03/11/2008
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