Tuesday, March 11, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 110526
SWODY1
SPC AC 110523

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2008

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

PROGRESSIVE...SPLIT PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS DURING THE DAY
ONE PERIOD. THE PRIMARY FEATURES OF INTEREST ARE: 1) SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WHICH WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES EWD
THROUGH THE SERN STATES...AND 2)SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN NM WHICH
WILL MOVE MORE SEWD...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE CNTRL GULF COAST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A WARM FRONT NOW OVER THE FL STRAITS WILL LIFT
NWD THROUGH AT LEAST THE SRN FL PENINSULA PRIOR TO WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHING EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF BASIN AND FL PENINSULA.

..S FL...

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE FL KEYS AND CUBA INDICATE A
RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S/
WHICH WILL DEVELOP NWD THROUGH THE PENINSULA TODAY ALONG AND S OF
WARM FRONT. LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...BUT THE
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE
TO AT LEAST MARGINAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING
500 J/KG. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SRN FRINGE OF HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO
LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACT ON A WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS.

REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER SRN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL JET WITH RATHER
STRONG WLY FLOW ABOVE 6-7 KM AGL. THE MODEST DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR MAY PROMOTE A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS. THE WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT MORE
ORGANIZED TSTM POTENTIAL AND NO SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES WILL BE
INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST.

..W TX...

VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER ERN NM AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
TRANSLATE SEWD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL COLD
POOL /-22 TO -24 C AT 500 MB/ AND DAYTIME HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE
LIMITED /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S/...THOUGH THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN POCKETS OF WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
WITH MLCAPES OF 100-300 J/KG.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE 11/21Z-12/03Z TIME FRAME OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO CONCHO
VALLEY ALONG AND AHEAD OF WEAK LEE TROUGH. SOME SMALL HAIL MAY EVEN
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS GIVEN THE COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.

.MEAD.. 03/11/2008

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