Tuesday, March 11, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111553
SWODY1
SPC AC 111551

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2008

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE SERN
STATES...EMERGING OFF THE GA/SC COAST AROUND 00Z. AT THE SURFACE...A
GENERALLY STABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE AS A RESULT OF RECENT FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND EFFECTS OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OFFSHORE. LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR S FL THIS
AFTERNOON. TO THE W...A COMPACT UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SEWD
INTO W CNTRL TX. COOL AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND PERHAPS A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES.

..S FL...
SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ALOFT. ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SRN FL...WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG WITH POCKETS OF HEATING. WINDS WILL VEER
FROM SELY TO SWLY WITH HEIGHT AND RESULT IN GENERALLY LONG STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR A FEW LONGER
LIVED STORMS...BUT SEVERE THREAT WILL BE QUITE LOW DUE TO THE POOR
QUALITY OF THE AIR MASS AND LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

..W CNTRL TX...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND VORTICITY CENTER...DENOTED BY AREA OF
CLOUDS ON VISIBLE THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE SEWD TODAY.
MEANWHILE...STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.
MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTER JUST TO THE E.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE VERY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SOME
CONVECTION MAY OCCUR. LITTLE FORCING EXISTS ASIDE FROM AFTERNOON
MIXING THUS ONLY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE EXPECTED.

.JEWELL.. 03/11/2008

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