DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071956
SWODY1
SPC AC 071954

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT SUN OCT 07 2007

VALID 072000Z - 081200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO MID MO VALLEY...

EARLY AFTERNOON MESOANALYSIS INDICATED COLD FRONT FROM WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR SWWD TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR MSP AND THEN MORE SWD TO ALONG
THE NEB/IA BORDER AND THEN INTO CNTRL KS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
HAS LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN IMMEDIATE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS
ACROSS ERN MN/WRN WI SWD INTO WRN/CNTRL IA WITH TEMPERATURES LARGELY
IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER IS QUITE MOIST
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WHICH ARE LARGELY
CONTRIBUTING TO A WEAKLY CAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.

ANY APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
THE W/SW OF REGION. AS SUCH...CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT AND
BROAD...WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISMS
MAINTAINING ONGOING STORMS OVER MN/IA WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING NEAR FRONT AND FARTHER E IN
WARM SECTOR OVER WI WHERE STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING. STRONGER MID AND HIGH-LEVEL
WIND FIELDS ATTENDANT TO UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH GENERALLY 30-35 KT OF DEEP...SWLY SHEAR ACROSS WARM
SECTOR. THIS MODEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/LINE SEGMENTS WITH A THREAT OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.

..CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

AS OF 19Z...SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR CNK TO S OF DDC TO
N OF TCC WITH RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A STEADY SEWD MOTION
OF THIS FEATURE. PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS EXPERIENCING
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER HEATING TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FROM
THE MID MO VALLEY NWD WITH TEMPERATURES COMMONLY IN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90F. 12Z REGIONAL OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES REMAIN QUITE WEAK...HOWEVER THIS HEATING ALONG WITH
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS /NAMELY E OF THE U.S. 183 CORRIDOR/
ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500
J/KG.

HERE TOO...RELATIVELY WEAK CAPPING SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
TSTM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG FRONT AND FARTHER E IN WARM
SECTOR ACROSS CNTRL/ERN PARTS OF KS/OK. FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRANSLATING ENEWD
THROUGH NM IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS A CONCENTRATED AREA OF TSTMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ALONG OR PERHAPS IN IMMEDIATE
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS FROM THE TX PNHDL NEWD INTO CNTRL KS. A FEW
OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

.MEAD.. 10/07/2007

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.