DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071236
SWODY1
SPC AC 071233

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 AM CDT SUN OCT 07 2007

VALID 071300Z - 081200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER WY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NEWD TO THE
WRN DAKOTAS AS A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES NEWD AROUND THE
SERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL LOW...FROM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
THIS MORNING TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALREADY MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS IN
ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE...THOUGH THE FRONT MAY SLOW TODAY
BEFORE ACCELERATING EWD/SEWD MONDAY AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES OVER
THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS AND WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS INVOF MN/WI.
THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD...WITH THE ONGOING ANAFRONTAL FLOW REGIME
AND LARGELY POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

REGIONAL SOUNDINGS/SURFACE ANALYSES AND SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL
RATHER MEDIOCRE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /GENERALLY AOB 6.5 C/KM/ IN
THE OPEN WARM SECTOR AND ABOVE THE FRONTAL SURFACE...ALONG WITH A
PLUME OF TROPICAL LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM E TX/OK NNEWD TO
IA/SRN MN. SCATTERED PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITHIN THIS
MOISTURE PLUME TODAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SURFACE HEATING...AND MLCAPE VALUES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 1000-1500
J/KG. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR FROM
W TX INTO CENTRAL KS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE REDUCED COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER E.
ADDITIONALLY... LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN IN THE WARM SECTOR
TODAY...WHILE THE STRONGER MID-UPPER FLOW AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN W OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THE NET RESULT WILL BE
AN ENVIRONMENT WITH SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY AND RATHER WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR E OF THE COLD FRONT...THUS THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS APPEARS QUITE MARGINAL ALONG THE COLD FRONT TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

.THOMPSON/BRIGHT.. 10/07/2007

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