DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 070602
SWODY1
SPC AC 070600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SUN OCT 07 2007

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE STEADILY EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS...AS LARGE UPPER TROUGH/LOW INITIALLY OVER THE ROCKIES
EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...A STRONG
RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WHILE A
SECOND/MUCH LARGER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY INTO WRN CANADA/THE PAC NW.

..WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MS VALLEY SSWWD INTO KS/NWRN OK...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...MAINLY TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MOIST...BUT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 C/KM AND ONGOING
STORMS/CLOUD COVER SUGGEST THAT OVERALL DESTABILIZATION WILL REMAIN
LIMITED.

AS COLD FRONT ADVANCES AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON INVOF FRONT --
AIDED BY 500 TO 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE FORECAST FROM THE WRN
UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THOUGH DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER
STORMS/STORM SEGMENTS...OVERALL ORGANIZATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LIMITED...AS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN WELL W OF THE FRONT ATOP THE COOL POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS. THUS...THOUGH STRONGEST CELLS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...OVERALL THREAT CONTINUES TO APPEAR
LIMITED ATTM...AND THUS WILL NOT INTRODUCE SLIGHT RISK THIS
FORECAST.

STORM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS NEWD
ACROSS THE PLAINS...THOUGH DIURNAL STABILIZATION OF THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

.GOSS/BRIGHT.. 10/07/2007

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