SWODY1
SPC AC 071612
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT SUN OCT 07 2007
VALID 071630Z - 081200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..PLAINS STATES...
LARGE...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT...WHILE
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NM ROUNDS BASE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH
AND EMERGES INTO KS/OK/TX. THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THIS MORNING...NOW
STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST IA TO NEAR DDC...THEN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
NM. A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION HAS SUPPRESSED WARM SECTOR
CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
HOWEVER...MORNING RAOBS AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE
CAP WILL IS WEAKENING TODAY...LIKELY RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT HIGH-BASED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIATE FIRST ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLE WHERE STRONG
HEATING AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG WILL BE PRESENT. THESE
STORMS WILL SPREAD NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ATOP SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER
KS AND LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE EVENING. ELEVATED CAPE
AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE SOME THREAT OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. ALSO...STORMS IMMEDIATELY ON COLD SIDE OF BOUNDARY
COULD ALSO POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.
ALSO PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN TX/OK INTO
IA/MN/WI. THIS REGION MAY SEE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND POOR LAPSE RATES
SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH. NEVERTHELESS...SOME POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY EXIST WITH STRONGER CELLS OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THIS PLUME FROM IA INTO MN/WI.
DESPITE INCREASED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION COMPARED TO PAST FEW
DAYS...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES REMAINS
LIMITED AND DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME.
.HART/JEWELL.. 10/07/2007
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