Sunday, October 7, 2007

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 070724
SWODY3
SPC AC 070722

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CDT SUN OCT 07 2007

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

MODEL CONCENSUS IS THAT UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THEN BEGIN TO SUPPRESS THE SERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE AS IT
AMPLIFIES SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. COLD FRONT INITIALLY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY WILL CONTINUE EWD AND
SEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE NERN STATES DURING THE DAY.

..NERN U.S AND MID ATLANTIC...

STRONGER UPPER FLOW ATTENDING CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN POST FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW ALOFT MAY
SPREAD OVER WARM SECTOR AS THIS FEATURE AMPLIFIES SEWD. SOME
DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS ALONG MOIST
AXIS AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AN AXIS OF MODEST
INSTABILITY AND STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE
HEATING OCCURS IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. MULTICELL STORMS WILL
CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. AT THIS TIME OVERALL THREAT
APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

.DIAL.. 10/07/2007

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