SWODY1
SPC AC 241700
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007
VALID 241630Z - 251200Z
..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN KS...SWRN
MO...CENTRAL AND ERN OK...WRN AR AND NRN...CENTRAL AND SWRN TX....
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDS THE MDT RISK AREA
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY....
..SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
..SYNOPSIS...
LATEST IR/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SERN
CO THIS MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ATTENDANT LOW OVER THE SRN
BORDER OF CO/KS WITH DRYLINE FEATURE THAT EXTENDS SEWD INTO NWRN OK
THEN SWD ACROSS SWRN OK/NWRN TX INTO THE BIG BEND AREA OVER THE
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE. ALSO...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NEWD INTO N CENTRAL
KS THEN EWD/SEWD THRU NWRN INTO E CENTRAL MO.
MODELS TAKE THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ESEWD TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT OVER SWRN KS/NWRN OK REFOCUSING THE SURFACE LOW INTO NWRN
OK. THE OTHER MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH IS THE SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE/VORTICITY MAX NOW MOVING INTO S CENTRAL NM. IT IS THIS
FEATURE THAT THE MODELS FOCUS STRONG FORCING ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
MOVING IT NEWD INTO NWRN TX/SWRN OK BY THIS EVENING. IMPRESSIONS AT
THIS TIME ARE THAT THIS FORCING MAY PRODUCE AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PARTS OF OK INTO NRN TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY TONIGHT.
..CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER A SMALL PORTION OF N
CENTRAL KS...BUT ALSO OVER SWRN INTO NWRN OK. THIS ACTIVITY IS JUST
OFF THE DRYLINE NEAR THE AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE
IS BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG. OF COURSE...GIVEN THE CURRENT LOCATION
OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KT EXTENDS
FROM EXTREME SRN TX NWD THRU NERN KS WITH GENERALLY SWLY MID LEVEL
FLOW OF 60-70 KT ACROSS W TX. THUS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF
40-50 KT ARE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE REGION SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG
UPDRAFTS/SUPERCELLS.
QUESTION WITH THE MODELS RIGHT NOW IS THE ANALYSIS THAT THERE IS A
MERIDIONAL JET STREAK E OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION WITH
A DEEPENING FEATURE THAT IS PROGGED TO DRIFT JUST S OF E TOWARDS
NWRN OK BY 25/00Z. ALL THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...BRING A
MID LEVEL JET STREAK NEWD INTO NWRN TX THIS EVENING PLACING THE EXIT
REGION OVER THIS REGION IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE AND THE WRN
EDGES OF 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL FLOW. IF THIS SCENARIO COMES
ABOUT...THEN THE SCENARIO WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES
FROM CENTRAL OK SWD AND SWWD INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL TX.
THEREFORE...AS SFC LOW MOVES INTO SWRN KS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...
DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE ENEWD INTO S CENTRAL OK/ N CENTRAL TX
INTENSIFYING STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
MAY ALREADY BE LINEAR WITH A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE JUST
AHEAD OF THE LINE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
ACROSS OK INTO NWRN TX AND WILL SPREAD EWD THRU THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS A FEW
STRONG TORNADOES.
.MCCARTHY/CORFIDI.. 04/24/2007
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