SWOD48
SPC AC 240900
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2007
VALID 271200Z - 021200Z
..DISCUSSION...
MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AT
THE START OF THE DAY 4 WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE NERN U.S AND
MID ATLANTIC...THOUGH AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF. SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY PERSIST MAINLY
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE DAY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING AMPLITUDE OF SYSTEM
AND PROBABLE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...WILL NOT INCLUDE A
RISK AREA AT THIS TIME.
IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN STATES MODELS INDICATE A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SEWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS FRIDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. MOISTURE...LAPSE RATES AND VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL LIKELY INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND CONTRIBUTE TO SOME
DESTABILIZATION AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY ACROSS TX.
HOWEVER...GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING DEGREE
OF MOISTURE RETURN...WILL NOT INTRODUCE A RISK AREA AT THIS TIME.
BEYOND DAY 4 PREDICTABILITY REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A RISK AREA.
.DIAL.. 04/24/2007
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