SWODY1
SPC AC 250101
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007
VALID 250100Z - 251200Z
..THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SW THROUGH NE TEXAS...
..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK FROM
SW THROUGH NE TX...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS EWD TO MO/AR AND NWRN LA...
..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH EXTENDED N-S ALONG THE
CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTERED OVER SERN CO IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT SLOWLY ESEWD INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW TRANSLATING THROUGH BASE OF LARGER
SCALE CLOSED LOW ACROSS SRN NM WILL MOVE ESEWD INTO CENTRAL/SRN TX
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ESEWD
FROM SWRN KS INTO NRN OK TONIGHT...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ESEWD REACHING WRN OK TO W CENTRAL TX BY LATE THIS EVENING...AND
THEN EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL OK THROUGH N TX TO SW TX BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
..CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE ARKLATEX/EXTREME SE OK...
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL /90+ KT/ AND UPPER LEVEL /120+ KT/ JETS
ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED LOW WILL RESULT IN FURTHER INCREASE IN
ASCENT WITHIN JET ENTRANCE REGIONS ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN TO ERN TX
ALONG/E OF DRY LINE. IN ADDITION...INCREASING SWLY LLJ FROM SRN-ERN
TX COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FOR CONTINUED LIKELIHOOD OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...SOME
TORNADIC...FROM PARTS OF SW TO NE TX. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FUEL FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR SQUALL LINE/MCS DEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS EVENING WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO E/SE TX. GIVEN LIKELIHOOD FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS...SOME STRONG...AND EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF DAMAGING WIND
PRODUCING SQUALL LINE...THIS OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN HIGH AND MODERATE
RISK AREAS ACROSS SW THROUGH CENTRAL AND NE TX.
..KS/OK INTO LOWER MO VALLEY...
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG NRN EXTENT
OF DRY LINE OVER CENTRAL INTO N CENTRAL KS NEAR INTERSECTION OF WARM
FRONT EXTENDING NEWD INTO NERN KS AND SECOND BOUNDARY MOVING SWD
THROUGH WRN KS. STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN
THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY NEAR BOUNDARY
INTERSECTION.
MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING /AROUND
OR AFTER 03Z/ SWD ALONG DRY LINE INTO WRN OK TO NW TX AS PROGRESSIVE
COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THIS BOUNDARY WITH POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IF STORMS
DEVELOP...THEN CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WOULD THEN TRACK EWD ACROSS OK/SRN
KS INTO SERN KS/ERN OK BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
FARTHER E...COLD POOL ENHANCED CLUSTERS OF STORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS
MO/AR THIS FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES SHOULD
ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND SOME HAIL THREAT.
HOWEVER...WEAKER LAPSE RATES WITH EWD EXTENT SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT
EWD THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS.
..ERN CO/FAR WRN KS...
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS ERN CO/FAR
WRN KS AS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS ESEWD OVERNIGHT. DECREASING
SHEAR AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING RESULTING IN A DIMINISHING TREND
IN AVAILABLE INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL
ORGANIZED STORMS TO THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
..LOWER OH VALLEY...
A SECOND SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY
/MOST LIKELY INTO NERN MO/ BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AS ATTENDANT EWD
EXTENDING WARM FRONT MOVES SLIGHTLY NWD INTO CENTRAL IL TO SWRN OH.
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z
ALONG NWD RETREATING WARM FRONT...WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND
STRONGER WIND GUSTS. THEREAFTER...DECREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A DIMINISHING TREND FOR
STRONGER UPDRAFTS...AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
.PETERS.. 04/25/2007
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