SWODY3
SPC AC 010727
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE WRN STATES ON
THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN AND THEN TRACK NNEWD TO
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN N-S
ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE NERN STATES
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES.
..NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
A NARROW AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND NWD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS ALONG AND E OF LEE TROUGH. SELY
LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES/STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH OVER
ERN MT/ERN WY. THUS...INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE
FLOW REGIME BENEATH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL IMPULSE ARE EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEE TROUGH BY MID-LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS...GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT WITH A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
..PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN TX TO WRN LA...
SWRN STATES MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WRN TX BY
LATE DAY 2 IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES E TOWARD SRN PART OF
UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER LOWER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE...FURTHER
WEAKENING OF LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS IMPULSE IS PROGGED AS PART OF
THIS WAVE TRACKS N TOWARD MID MO VALLEY AND SOME ENERGY TRANSLATES
ESEWD THROUGH LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS TO SRN APPALACHIANS REGION.
ALTHOUGH TX SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE DE-AMPLIFYING...ASCENT
SPREADING EWD ATOP MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL INTO ERN TX
SHOULD PROVE SUPPORTIVE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 40
KT OF WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION WITHIN MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS. HOWEVER...THIS OUTLOOK WILL ONLY INTRODUCE LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITIES GIVEN SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
STRENGTH OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH WEAKENING SRN STREAM TROUGH.
.PETERS.. 05/01/2007
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