MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0634

ACUS11 KWNS 010603
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010603
TXZ000-010830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0634
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 AM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL THROUGH CENTRAL TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 010603Z - 010830Z

THROUGH REMAINDER OVERNIGHT HOURS...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND MOVING GENERALLY SEWD AROUND SRN
RIM OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. LRG HAIL AND ISOLATED STG-SVR GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER SERN NM...WITH DIFFUSE WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS PERMIAN BASIN AND SJT AREA TO SRN HILL
COUNTRY...GENERALLY PARALLEL TO AND ABOUT 60 NM N OF I-10. MOST
FAVORABLE SFC AIR MASS -- WITH DEW POINTS MID 60S F -- WILL REMAIN
ALONG AND S OF THIS WARM FRONT...WHICH IS FCST TO DRIFT NWD EXCEPT
WHERE LOCALLY/EFFECTIVELY SHUNTED SWD AGAIN BY OUTFLOW FROM TSTMS TO
ITS N. NOTE THAT ADJACENT SFC STATIONS AQO AND T82 NW OF SAT ARE
REPORTING BOGUS SFC DEW POINTS AROUND 6-7 DEG F TOO HIGH THAT MAY
AFFECT OBJECTIVE ANALYSES IN MESOBETA SCALE INFLOW REGION. THOSE
ASIDE...PRIND SFC AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
STABILIZE GRADUALLY THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING...BASED ON MODIFIED
RUC SOUNDINGS AND ON STRENGTHENING INVERSION IMPLIED BY INCREASE IN
REFLECTIVITY CLUTTER. THIS WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL REDUCTION IN
POTENTIAL FOR SVR GUSTS TO REACH SFC...ALTHOUGH BOW CIRCULATIONS AND
REAR-FLANK DOWNDRAFT WINDS IN ANY SUPERCELLS STILL MAY CAUSE DAMAGE.
LLJ HAS STRENGTHENED TO 40-45 KT ACROSS BROAD AREA FROM
SAT-MAF...AND WILL BE MAINTAINED SEVERAL MORE HOURS WITH SOME SWLY
VEERING POSSIBLE BETWEEN SJT-MAF. ASSOCIATED/ELEVATED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND DESTABILIZATION ABOVE SFC MAY MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...WITH MUCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR TO SUPPORT BOTH BOW AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ROOTED ALOFT.

.EDWARDS.. 05/01/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

30469899 30880017 31510180 31920219 32350210 32440143
32450044 33129982 33109883 32619799 31849710 30889748
30499824

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